By evaluating changes in climate or temperature over shortened periods, such as decades or centuries instead of hundreds of thousands or even millions of years, we either overestimate or overstate the changes that might or might not be occurring.

The contributions of human activities to global warming is a topic of continuing and intense debate. Unfortunately, the vast majority of articles and reports on the effects of anthropogenic carbon dioxide are overstated and exaggerated.

The debate has raged on about the causes and effects of global warming, but the first question to ask is whether global warming even exists.

Certainly it does, because without global warming, the earth would be a much colder place. A good example is our closest neighbor, the moon, where, even in direct sunlight, without an atmosphere there are no molecules to absorb and retain the incoming heat from the sun.

The earth's atmosphere contains several gases, all of which have the capacity to absorb heat energy in varying degrees. The most common gases are nitrogen, oxygen, water and carbon dioxide. There also are trace gases such as argon, methane and hydrogen, but their concentrations are all much less than one percent.

Periodic changes in temperature give rise to climates that vary widely from polar regions to the tropics. Climate is caused by more than just global warming. The main causal factors of climate change are the eccentricity of the earth's orbit around the sun, the tilt of the rotational axis and its wobble.

Sun spot activity, ocean currents and albedo (whiteness) also contribute to climate and climate change. The issue that has to be addressed is how much of an effect carbon dioxide has on climate change.

Experts agree that the earth's climate is primarily caused by the distance from the sun, the shape and changes in the orbit and tilt of the rotational axis. As long as the sun continues to burn, we will be warm. Astronomers believe that the sun is middle aged and we have approximately 4 billion years to go before it turns into a white dwarf.

If you believe mainstream scientists, the earth's age is estimated to be 4.5 billion years old. For the first billion years or so, the earth was a hot and barren place with no oxygen in the atmosphere. Since there was no oxygen, there was also no ozone. But after a billion years, life began to form, the climate stabilized and oxygen resulting from photosynthesis began to occupy the atmosphere.

Since that time, the climate has remained stable and conducive to various life forms. The oceans have never frozen nor boiled. During that time there have been changes in average temperature, sometimes warmer and sometimes colder than our present-day climate.

Climatological studies of ice core samples have shown that about every 100,000 to 150,000 years, the earth goes through a relatively short period of warming followed by a longer period of cooling, including an ice age. The warming period is approximately 20,000 years long and the cooling period lasts about 100,000 years.

During the last cooling period, ice covered the northern and southernmost areas from 45 degrees North and 45 degrees South, to the poles. The middle latitudes remained free of ice, therefore warm and hospitable to most life forms. The last ice age ended approximately 20,000 years ago and the earth has been warming ever since, so it is no surprise to expect that the next ice age is not far off.

Since the last ice age, the climate has warmed about 16 degrees Fahrenheit and the sea level has risen approximately 300 feet. Humans have only been around for about 1.75 million years. The warming and cooling cycles were happening long before human existence.

Even more recently, the last ice age ended and warming began thousands of years before the industrial revolution. Current changes in temperature and climate have been blamed on CO₂ production from the industrial revolution, which began only 200 years ago, but numerous reports have compared CO₂ atmospheric concentrations over the last 200 years in an attempt to prove the relationship between the concentration of CO₂ and the increase in average global temperatures.

So what effect have human activities had on climate? To some extent, quite a lot. Building large cites creates "heat islands," which cause localized changes in weather. Massive deforestation (for example, in the tropics) causes changes in the hydrological (rain) cycle.

Pollution contributes to changes in atmospheric chemistry; for example, smog and particulates produce haze and ozone as well as other pollutants such as NOX (various nitrogen oxides). Refrigerants are blamed for destruction of ozone.

But what about carbon dioxide? Produced by all forms of combustion and fermentation, CO₂ has been the focus of debate on climate change to such an extent that controls on CO₂ production have been connected to world economics (Kyoto Treaty) and pollution bartering.

At the present time, carbon dioxide makes up approximately 0.03 percent (or 300 parts per million) of the earth's atmosphere. In and of itself, that number is small when compared to the other major gases in the atmosphere. For example, oxygen and nitrogen are present at 21 and 78 percent respectively.

To obtain a sense for how much heat carbon dioxide absorbs and therefore contributes to global warming, the following information must also be considered.

More than 98 percent of all CO₂ in the atmosphere is produced by sources other than by man. For example, CO₂ is produced by forest fires, volcanoes, fermentation and animal and plant respiration.

Carbon dioxide does not remain in the atmosphere. It is absorbed in the oceans, lakes and rivers and is used by marine life to produce shells and food. It is also used by terrestrial plants to produce cellulose, sugar and other plant products.

Carbon dioxide is an essential and beneficial nutrient and is actively involved in a dynamic, not static process.

By comparison, water is present in the atmosphere in amounts varying from a few tenths of a percent in desert areas to as much as 4 percent in humid tropical areas. The amount of atmospheric water content changes dramatically with temperature and air pressure.

Clouds and fog are made up of water and 70 percent of the earth's surface is covered with water. Approximately 500 billion tons of carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide are added to the atmosphere each day, of which 98 percent is naturally produced.

In other words, only 2 percent is anthropogenic. Around 1.16 billion tons of water is evaporated each day. At any given time, there are 10⁶ billion tons of carbon dioxide and 12.9 x 10⁶ billion tons of water in the atmosphere.

And so the important question is "What do all of these numbers mean?"

First, there is a lot more water in the atmosphere than CO₂. Second, the amount of CO₂ pumped into the atmosphere by human activities is small when compared to the amount of water already in the atmosphere.

Finally we also must evaluate how much heat energy both carbon dioxide and water are capable of absorbing. Pound-for-pound, water absorbs two times more heat energy than CO₂. The difference comes from how much vibrational energy the oxygen-hydrogen (OH) bonds absorb than that of the carbon-oxygen (C=O) bonds.

What then can we derive from all of the different information on global warming?

First, all of the data presented are factual, accurate and generally accepted by the established scientific community noting that many of the absolute numbers vary slightly depending on the source.

Global warming does occur as a result of all atmospheric gases absorbing and retaining heat energy from the sun.

Heat also is absorbed by land surfaces and reflected by snow, clouds and other light colored surfaces.

At any given time, climate is largely controlled by the energy of the sun and the earth's position relative to the sun.

The amount of carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere by human activities (2 percent of 0.03 percent, which is 0.000006 percent) when compared to water that is always present (range of 0.5 percent to 4 percent) is a very small amount.

Pound-for-pound, water absorbs two times more heat energy than carbon dioxide.

Too often, experts, and even scientists study and report the effects of CO₂ on climate in a manner that is similar to the story of five blind men describing an elephant. Each one views the elephant as a completely different being because he doesn't include the information from any of the others.

The situations with studies or reports on global warming are similar. Unless we consider all of the factors that contribute to our climate simultaneously, we are using an unscientific technique known as data selection, which is inappropriate in thorough and accurate research.

By evaluating changes in climate or temperature over shortened periods, such as decades or centuries instead of hundreds of thousands or even millions of years, we either overestimate or overstate the changes that might or might not be occurring. Data selection can be used to verify any reasonable conclusion about climate change.

Because there is a lot more water in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide and because water absorbs so much more energy than carbon dioxide, we should conclude that the effect that these gases have on the warming of the atmosphere is largely caused by water. Man's contribution, although it certainly exists, is more like throwing a stone into the ocean, real and calculable, but barely noticeable.